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What is the Employment Figures and its importance in forex analysis?
The employment amount depends on the jobs available. Active employees will affect the economic condition of the country significantly. The best economic condition is when there are more job vacancies available, so it will decrease the unemployed level. On the contrary, the economic contraction will cause the rise of the unemployed level that endangers the economy.
Some indicators of the employment figures are usually released in a month, and one of them is Non-Farm Payroll AS that attracts many traders' attention. The indicators determine the employment amount outside the agriculture sector as the reflection of the economic power of the United States. In other countries of major currencies such as Australia, Canada, and the Euro area, the indicator is called the Employment Change.
Continue Reading at Everything You Need to Know About Fundamental Analysis
How to use CDS in forex fundamental analysis?
The value of CDS used as tool for fundamental analysis is based on the sovereign CDS. The current value of sovereign CDS can be used to predict the direction of currency movement of a country in the future. The higher the CDS of a country, the higher the risks of those countries. For example, the European crisis that happened in Eurozone worried investors and market analysts. It means the crisis influenced the value of CDS. Therefore the risk of bankruptcy would increase exponentially. It is due to the lack of investor's confidence in the value of those countries' currencies.
In the picture above, we could see 5-year CDS from Portugal, Greece, Italy, and Spain experienced sharp increases in February 2012. It showed that in medium to long-term, the crisis in Europe was still going to be the main news and could possibly crush Euro. We could see how the crisis affects Eurozone economic recovery, and consequently, the Euro.
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How do interest rates influence forex?
Interest rates add value to every country's currency. Higher interest rates in relation to a currency means it offers relatively higher return compared to any other currency. This way, the higher interest rates in a country, the demand for their currency will rise too because investors will want to have them.
The opposite may happen with lower interest rates. When a country's central bank lowers interest rates, the exchange rates will undergo depreciation. For instance, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut their interest rates twice in 2013. Even further, until December of that year, the governor repeatedly mentioned the possibility of a third cut. As a result, AUD became one of the worst major in 2013, having entered a bearish trend that went on until 2014.
Continue Reading at Central Bank Policies That Affect the Forex Market
Is it important to know major banks' FX positions?
Knowing major banks' FX positions can be important for certain traders, as it provides insights that can help identify low-risk, high-reward, and high-probability entry points in the market.
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