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The major global commodities that have the most influence on currency exchange rates and serve as important indicators in Intermarket analysis are gold and crude oil.
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The value of CDS used as tool for fundamental analysis is based on the sovereign CDS. The current value of sovereign CDS can be used to predict the direction of currency movement of a country in the future. The higher the CDS of a country, the higher the risks of those countries. For example, the European crisis that happened in Eurozone worried investors and market analysts. It means the crisis influenced the value of CDS. Therefore the risk of bankruptcy would increase exponentially. It is due to the lack of investor's confidence in the value of those countries' currencies.
In the picture above, we could see 5-year CDS from Portugal, Greece, Italy, and Spain experienced sharp increases in February 2012. It showed that in medium to long-term, the crisis in Europe was still going to be the main news and could possibly crush Euro. We could see how the crisis affects Eurozone economic recovery, and consequently, the Euro.
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Interest rates add value to every country's currency. Higher interest rates in relation to a currency means it offers relatively higher return compared to any other currency. This way, the higher interest rates in a country, the demand for their currency will rise too because investors will want to have them.
The opposite may happen with lower interest rates. When a country's central bank lowers interest rates, the exchange rates will undergo depreciation. For instance, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut their interest rates twice in 2013. Even further, until December of that year, the governor repeatedly mentioned the possibility of a third cut. As a result, AUD became one of the worst major in 2013, having entered a bearish trend that went on until 2014.
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There are four main types of Commitment of Traders (COT) reports:
- Legacy COT Report
- Supplemental COT Report
- Disaggregated COT Report
- Traders in Financial Futures (TFF) Report
Continue Reading at What is Market Sentiment in Forex and How to Measure It?