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How do fundamental data contribute to your forex analysis?
Fundamental and important data affect the demand for a currency, especially the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the Consumer Price Index (CPI), and the Employment Figure. Those three indicators reflect the economic condition of a country and they directly affect the exchange rate of the currency.
Whatever strategy you use in trading, you must monitor the three data mentioned for determining the tendency of currency's price movement based on the capital inflow and outflow in the country. The country with a strong economic condition will attract more investors so more money supply will flow into the country, and vice versa.
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What is the Employment Figures and its importance in forex analysis?
The employment amount depends on the jobs available. Active employees will affect the economic condition of the country significantly. The best economic condition is when there are more job vacancies available, so it will decrease the unemployed level. On the contrary, the economic contraction will cause the rise of the unemployed level that endangers the economy.
Some indicators of the employment figures are usually released in a month, and one of them is Non-Farm Payroll AS that attracts many traders' attention. The indicators determine the employment amount outside the agriculture sector as the reflection of the economic power of the United States. In other countries of major currencies such as Australia, Canada, and the Euro area, the indicator is called the Employment Change.
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How does forex market manipulation works?
Forex market manipulation involves trying to influence other traders' behavior to gain an advantage and potentially cause losses for others. Manipulators seek to control market prices, particularly in currency pairs, by pushing prices in their favor while leaving other traders with losing positions.
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How to use CDS in forex fundamental analysis?
The value of CDS used as tool for fundamental analysis is based on the sovereign CDS. The current value of sovereign CDS can be used to predict the direction of currency movement of a country in the future. The higher the CDS of a country, the higher the risks of those countries. For example, the European crisis that happened in Eurozone worried investors and market analysts. It means the crisis influenced the value of CDS. Therefore the risk of bankruptcy would increase exponentially. It is due to the lack of investor's confidence in the value of those countries' currencies.
In the picture above, we could see 5-year CDS from Portugal, Greece, Italy, and Spain experienced sharp increases in February 2012. It showed that in medium to long-term, the crisis in Europe was still going to be the main news and could possibly crush Euro. We could see how the crisis affects Eurozone economic recovery, and consequently, the Euro.
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