Global economic projections for 2024 are weakened, but the majority of experts believe there will not be a severe recession.

Extremely high interest rate hikes at various central banks have fueled concerns about the risk of a global recession. Moreover, interest rates at major central banks have reached record highs this year. However, a recent Reuters survey shows that experts from the world's top banks believe a global recession will not occur next year.

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Experts from the world's top banks such as Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, UBS, Barclays, JP Morgan, and BofA, predict that global economic growth will weaken next year. The projected global economic growth in 2023 is +2.9%, while the projected growth in 2024 is only +2.6%. The reasons are high interest rates, higher energy prices, and a slowdown in the world's two largest economies.

At the same time, most economists think the global economy will avoid recession next year. Only a handful of economists expect Europe and the United Kingdom to experience a "mild recession".

Projections for US real GDP growth in 2024 range from +1.10% to +2.10%. This suggests that economists believe the Federal Reserve is capable of realizing a "soft landing" although there is still a lot of uncertainty about the future direction of the Fed's monetary policy.

China's GDP growth this year is likely to be around +5%, but the projection for next year is expected to be only between +4.20% and +4.80%. One of the main problems is that more and more companies are looking for alternative production sites that are more cost-effective.

Economic projections for the Eurozone and the UK are much weaker than for the US and China. Morgan Stanley even expects UK growth in 2024 to be -0.1%. The most optimistic forecasts of the world's top banks for the Eurozone and UK economies are just +0.9% and +0.6% respectively.