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How to use CDS in forex fundamental analysis?
The value of CDS used as tool for fundamental analysis is based on the sovereign CDS. The current value of sovereign CDS can be used to predict the direction of currency movement of a country in the future. The higher the CDS of a country, the higher the risks of those countries. For example, the European crisis that happened in Eurozone worried investors and market analysts. It means the crisis influenced the value of CDS. Therefore the risk of bankruptcy would increase exponentially. It is due to the lack of investor's confidence in the value of those countries' currencies.
In the picture above, we could see 5-year CDS from Portugal, Greece, Italy, and Spain experienced sharp increases in February 2012. It showed that in medium to long-term, the crisis in Europe was still going to be the main news and could possibly crush Euro. We could see how the crisis affects Eurozone economic recovery, and consequently, the Euro.
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Are there any correlations between stock market indices and currencies?
As a matter of fact, yes. For instance, there is often a correlation between the rise of the US Dollar and strong gains in stock indices like Dow Jones, NASDAQ, and S&P500. Similarly, a correlation has been observed between the Nikkei stock index and the Japanese Yen.
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How many types of COT are there?
There are four main types of Commitment of Traders (COT) reports:
- Legacy COT Report
- Supplemental COT Report
- Disaggregated COT Report
- Traders in Financial Futures (TFF) Report
Continue Reading at What is Market Sentiment in Forex and How to Measure It?
Yes, it does.
The Commitment of Traders (COT) report is a document that comes out every week and tells trader how different groups of people are trading in the U.S. futures market. This report is put together by the CFTC in the U.S.
Continue Reading at What is Market Sentiment in Forex and How to Measure It?