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According to a study by the Bank of International Settlements that was originally published in 2013 and revised in 2016 about client flows in forex trading, the flow of institutional traders reflects a significantly superior alignment with future pricing than that of corporate and private traders' flows. To put it simply, the power imbalance in forex trading gives a huge advantage to institutional traders.

Their order flow is usually so powerful that it can drive the price to move in a certain direction, hence creating a trend. But don't lose hope just yet because fortunately, there is still a way to analyze market sentiment for retail traders, and that is through the Commitment of Traders data report.

Continue Reading at Guide to Analyzing Trend Based on COT Data

There are four main types of Commitment of Traders (COT) reports:

1. Legacy COT Report
2. Supplemental COT Report
3. Disaggregated COT Report
4. Traders in Financial Futures (TFF) Report

Continue Reading at What is Market Sentiment in Forex and How to Measure It?

The value of CDS used as tool for fundamental analysis is based on the sovereign CDS. The current value of sovereign CDS can be used to predict the direction of currency movement of a country in the future. The higher the CDS of a country, the higher the risks of those countries. For example, the European crisis that happened in Eurozone worried investors and market analysts. It means the crisis influenced the value of CDS. Therefore the risk of bankruptcy would increase exponentially. It is due to the lack of investor's confidence in the value of those countries' currencies.

In the picture above, we could see 5-year CDS from Portugal, Greece, Italy, and Spain experienced sharp increases in February 2012. It showed that in medium to long-term, the crisis in Europe was still going to be the main news and could possibly crush Euro. We could see how the crisis affects Eurozone economic recovery, and consequently, the Euro.

Continue Reading at The Most Accurate Fundamental Analysis

Purchasing Managers Index, or what is known as PMI, is an economic report that draws conclusions from business surveys and indicates the business climate in a certain country during a particular period. They usually survey several private companies in the country and track indicators like new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, etc. In this regard, PMI is often seen as more comprehensive and useful than ordinary economic data such as GDP (Gross Domestic Product).

Continue Reading at Guide to PMI Data in Forex Analysis