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Fundamental and important data affect the demand for a currency, especially the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the Consumer Price Index (CPI), and the Employment Figure. Those three indicators reflect the economic condition of a country and they directly affect the exchange rate of the currency.

Whatever strategy you use in trading, you must monitor the three data mentioned for determining the tendency of currency's price movement based on the capital inflow and outflow in the country. The country with a strong economic condition will attract more investors so more money supply will flow into the country, and vice versa.

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According to a study by the Bank of International Settlements that was originally published in 2013 and revised in 2016 about client flows in forex trading, the flow of institutional traders reflects a significantly superior alignment with future pricing than that of corporate and private traders' flows. To put it simply, the power imbalance in forex trading gives a huge advantage to institutional traders.

Their order flow is usually so powerful that it can drive the price to move in a certain direction, hence creating a trend. But don't lose hope just yet because fortunately, there is still a way to analyze market sentiment for retail traders, and that is through the Commitment of Traders data report.

Continue Reading at Guide to Analyzing Trend Based on COT Data

The value of CDS used as tool for fundamental analysis is based on the sovereign CDS. The current value of sovereign CDS can be used to predict the direction of currency movement of a country in the future. The higher the CDS of a country, the higher the risks of those countries. For example, the European crisis that happened in Eurozone worried investors and market analysts. It means the crisis influenced the value of CDS. Therefore the risk of bankruptcy would increase exponentially. It is due to the lack of investor's confidence in the value of those countries' currencies.

In the picture above, we could see 5-year CDS from Portugal, Greece, Italy, and Spain experienced sharp increases in February 2012. It showed that in medium to long-term, the crisis in Europe was still going to be the main news and could possibly crush Euro. We could see how the crisis affects Eurozone economic recovery, and consequently, the Euro.

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Yes, it does.

The Commitment of Traders (COT) report is a document that comes out every week and tells trader how different groups of people are trading in the U.S. futures market. This report is put together by the CFTC in the U.S.

Continue Reading at What is Market Sentiment in Forex and How to Measure It?